How Our January Predictions Stack Up Against August Realities
An ICSB analysis of our Top 10 Trends for MSMEs, 8 months later
By Dr. Ayman ElTarabishy, President and CEO, ICSB
When we published our Top 10 Trends for MSMEs in January 2025, we made bold predictions about a rapidly evolving business landscape. Eight months later, we’re thrilled with how our predictions performed, with some trends proving even more transformative than anticipated.
Trend #1: Bureaucracy (We Called the Top Challenge!)
Our January Prediction: Bureaucracy would be the number one enemy of entrepreneurship, with digital systems adding complexity.
August Reality: We nailed this one, and the response has been encouraging! For example, New York City launched “Small Business Forward 2.0” with initiatives to cut red tape and make it easier for businesses to thrive. Federal legislation is being introduced to require agencies to prove new regulations are necessary.
Success Story: Small businesses now receive advance notice of regulatory changes, with key agencies delivering annual presentations to gather feedback.
Verdict: Spot On & Driving Change
Trend #2: Peace for Economic Development
Our January Prediction: Ongoing conflicts would continue disrupting global markets, with MSMEs playing crucial recovery roles.
August Reality: While conflicts persist, we’re seeing MSMEs demonstrate remarkable resilience. The global business community increasingly recognizes small enterprises as essential rebuilding partners.
Verdict: Accurate & Hopeful
Trend #3: AI Humanization (The Success Story of the Year!)
Our January Prediction: AI would climb to prominence with emphasis on humanizing applications, and “GEN AI” individuals would become indispensable.
August Reality: This prediction exceeded our wildest expectations! 68% of small business owners now use AI, with 74% planning business growth in 2025. Even better: 80% say AI enhances rather than replaces their workforce.
Expert Insight: As Rico Baldegger noted in his analysis of SME digital transformation, the future demands “humane entrepreneurship,” business approaches grounded in equity, purpose, and well-being. This perfectly aligns with how MSMEs implement AI as a tool for human enhancement.
Success Stories: 91% of small businesses with AI report revenue boosts; reMarkable uses AI to handle soaring customer inquiries while maintaining white-glove service; companies with 10-100 employees lead adoption at 68%.
Verdict: Beyond Bulls-Eye
Trend #4: Trade Wars Navigation
Our January Prediction: Trade wars would create challenges requiring MSME agility and supply chain diversification.
August Reality: While trade disruptions have been significant, MSMEs that followed our advice about diversification are thriving. Smart businesses are reevaluating supply chains, finding suppliers in non-tariff countries, and negotiating better contracts.
Verdict: Challenging but Navigable
Trend #5: ESG Bureaucracy Burden
Our January Prediction: ESG would become a burdensome compliance system rather than enabling sustainability.
August Reality: Our prediction catalyzed important conversations! The EU introduced an Omnibus Simplification Package in February 2025 specifically to address regulatory burden concerns for SMEs, concerns we had raised at the start of the year.
Our January Prediction: ESG would become a burdensome compliance system rather than enabling sustainability.
August Reality: Our prediction catalyzed important conversations! The EU introduced an Omnibus Simplification Package in February 2025 specifically to address regulatory burden concerns for SMEs, concerns we had raised at the start of the year. In parallel, the OECD recently released its Guidance Note on Fostering Convergence in SME Sustainability Reporting to advance the simplification agenda and ensure SMEs are not left behind.
ICSB’s Mandate: As the voice of MSMEs worldwide, some of what we said was very new and challenging for others to accept. Yet, this is our mandate: to speak truth about the challenges facing small businesses globally, even when those truths are uncomfortable.
Verdict: Prescient & Awareness-Building
Trend #6: Circular Economy Growth
Our January Prediction: Circular economy business models would gain prominence as MSMEs prioritized sustainability.
August Reality: This trend is blossoming with inspiring examples! Patagonia’s Worn Wear program encourages customers to repair, reuse, and recycle gear. 25 Danish companies successfully exchange surplus materials through industrial symbiosis, creating green business models while lowering costs.
Verdict: Flourishing
Trend #7: Women Entrepreneurs
Our January Prediction: Progress would remain slow but steady.
August Reality: While systemic change remains gradual, individual success stories inspire hope. Gretta van Riel grew SkinnyMe Tea from zero to $600K monthly at age 22 using social media innovation. Amira Rasool built The Folklore from a $30K investment to over $6 million in funding.
ICSB Expert Perspective: Alina Landowska’s research on small businesses in crisis highlights how women entrepreneurs demonstrate exceptional resilience during challenging periods. Camille Burns from the Women President Organization continues championing pathways for women entrepreneurs to scale businesses.
Regional Success: As highlighted in our MENA business education research with Sherif Kamel, the region’s young demographics present tremendous opportunities for women entrepreneurs to lead transformation.
Verdict: Steady with Inspiring Breakthroughs
Trend #8: Digital Collaborative Alliances
Our January Prediction: Collaborative alliances would evolve through simple digital technologies.
August Reality: This quiet revolution continues exactly as predicted. Messaging apps and basic platforms enable efficient partnerships, knowledge sharing, and coordinated efforts among MSMEs worldwide.
Corporate Partnership Success: Amazon’s support for MSMEs in Austria exemplifies how large corporations can foster collaborative ecosystems, providing small businesses access to global markets, logistics infrastructure, and digital tools.
Verdict: Perfectly on Track
Trend #9: Human-Centered Entrepreneurship
Our January Prediction: Human-centered entrepreneurship would rise with focus on employee development.
August Reality: This trend found unexpected acceleration through AI adoption! 80% of AI-using small businesses report the technology enhances their workforce, validating our prediction about human development remaining central.
Success Example: Companies like BOQ Group implemented Microsoft 365 Copilot, enabling 70% of employees to save 30 to 60 minutes daily. Rather than replacing workers, this freed up time for employees to focus on higher-value activities like strategic planning and relationship building. The technology completed routine tasks while employees concentrated on creative problem-solving and client interactions—a perfect example of human-centered entrepreneurship in action.
Verdict: Synergistic Success
Trend #10: Cybersecurity and Counterfeit Challenges
Our January Prediction: MSMEs would face dual challenges from counterfeiters and cyber threats.
August Reality: This remains relevant, but businesses that took early action are protected. Smart MSMEs invested in cybersecurity training and brand protection strategies throughout the year.
Verdict: Ongoing but Manageable
From Prediction to Action: The ICSB Difference
Our success isn’t just in accurate forecasting, it’s in fulfilling our mandate as the voice of MSMEs worldwide. What sets ICSB apart is our commitment to speaking truth about small business challenges, even when those truths are uncomfortable or challenging for others to accept.
Speaking Truth to Power: Throughout 2025, we didn’t shy away from difficult conversations. When we identified bureaucracy as the #1 threat to entrepreneurship, or warned that ESG was becoming a compliance burden, some found these perspectives challenging. Yet this is precisely our mandate: to be the authentic voice of MSMEs, reflecting their real experiences on the global stage.
The UN MSMEs Day Legacy: Since proposing the United Nations Day for MSMEs in 2016, celebrated annually on June 27th, we’ve championed these enterprises as economic rebuilding engines. June 27th was strategically chosen during mid-year evaluation period, making it ideal for focusing global attention on MSME opportunities.
Turning Predictions into Solutions: Throughout 2025, ICSB moved beyond forecasting, partnering with governments to streamline digital processes, helping MSMEs implement human-centered AI approaches, providing frameworks for supply chain diversification, and raising awareness about regulatory burden issues that later influenced policy discussions.
Global Action Through Signature Events: Our past and upcoming Sydney, Seoul, and Paris events, plus ICSB Global in Egypt, transformed predictions into practical solutions. These solution labs turn January predictions into August implementations.
Expert Contributions: Rico Baldegger’s research on SME digital transformation emphasizes “open innovation systems,” exactly what our events deliver. Our work with Sherif Kamel in MENA and Alina Landowska’s crisis management insights inform practical solutions worldwide. Camille Burns from the Women President Organization adds vital perspectives on scaling women-led businesses.
The Remarkable Scorecard
Our Championship Predictions: Bureaucracy Crisis raised awareness about regulatory burdens, contributing to global reform discussions; AI Adoption Explosion with 68% adoption validated our humanization approach; Trade Navigation with early warnings helped MSMEs prepare and adapt; ESG Simplification where we identified problems early and helped build awareness about regulatory burden.
Our Steady Winners: Peace and development challenges; women entrepreneur innovation stories; digital collaboration evolution; cybersecurity preparedness.
The ICSB Promise: We don’t just predict the future; we serve as the authentic voice of MSMEs worldwide. Our January trends weren’t just academic insights; they were the real concerns and experiences of small businesses globally, voiced through our platform even when those truths challenged conventional thinking.
When the voice of MSMEs meets rigorous research and decisive action, uncomfortable truths become powerful catalysts for positive change.
